Tuesday, April 1, 2025
what is a better stock to invest in as of today April 1st 2025: Rivian or Tesla stock?
Deciding between Rivian (RIVN) and Tesla (TSLA) as a better stock to invest in on April 1, 2025, depends on your investment goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon. Both companies are prominent players in the electric vehicle (EV) market, but they’re at very different stages, which impacts their risk-reward profiles. Here’s a breakdown based on their current status:
Tesla (TSLA)
Strengths: Tesla is the established leader in the EV space, with a proven track record of profitability and scale. In 2024, it delivered nearly 1.79 million vehicles, dwarfing Rivian’s output. It generated over $7 billion in net income and $3.6 billion in free cash flow last year, even with a slight delivery decline from 1.81 million in 2023. Tesla’s cash reserves exceed $29 billion, giving it flexibility to invest in new factories, autonomous driving, and robotaxis—areas that could drive future growth. Its stock surged late in 2024, partly due to optimism tied to Elon Musk’s influence and potential regulatory shifts under a Trump administration.
Risks: Tesla’s stock is pricey, with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio around 90-115 (depending on the latest analyst updates), reflecting high expectations. Its 2024 delivery dip signals rising competition, especially in China and Europe, and its Q4 2024 results disappointed with only 2% sales growth and an 8% drop in automotive revenue. The stock’s recent run-up might limit short-term upside, and any setbacks in autonomous driving or overseas sales could trigger volatility.
Catalysts: Progress on robotaxis and autonomous driving could be a game-changer in 2025, especially if regulatory hurdles ease. However, its high valuation means it needs to deliver big to justify the price.
Rivian (RIVN)
Strengths: Rivian is a younger, high-growth EV maker with a strong brand, topping owner satisfaction lists. It delivered 51,579 vehicles in 2024, up 3% from 2023, despite production challenges. Its partnership with Volkswagen (up to $5 billion) and a $6.6 billion U.S. Department of Energy loan bolster its financial runway. The upcoming R2 SUV, set for 2026 at ~$45,000, targets a broader market, and cost-cutting efforts (e.g., 45% material cost reduction by 2026) aim for profitability. Its stock trades at a lower multiple—around 3 times forward sales—versus Tesla’s 6+ times, suggesting more room for growth if it executes well.
Risks: Rivian isn’t profitable yet, with a projected 2025 adjusted EBITDA loss of $1.7-$1.9 billion. It’s burned through significant cash (down to ~$7 billion by late 2024), and scaling production remains capital-intensive. It faces stiffer competition than Tesla did in its early days, and any delays with the R2 could hurt sentiment. Its stock is down 90% from its 2021 peak, reflecting investor skepticism.
Catalysts: Achieving positive gross margins in 2025 and ramping up production could spark a rally. The Volkswagen deal and R2 launch are key milestones to watch.
Comparison and Verdict
Stability vs. Speculation: Tesla offers stability with its profitability and scale, but its high valuation means less explosive upside unless robotaxis take off. Rivian is riskier but has more growth potential if it hits its targets, given its lower valuation and earlier stage.
Market Sentiment: As of April 1, 2025, Tesla’s late-2024 surge contrasts with Rivian’s beaten-down status, though Rivian’s stock popped 7.46% today per some reports, hinting at momentum.
Today’s Choice: If you prioritize lower risk and a proven business, Tesla is the better pick right now—it’s less likely to collapse and has multiple growth levers. If you’re comfortable with higher risk for potentially higher reward, Rivian could outperform over time, especially if it proves profitability is near. Given today’s date and no major new catalysts reported, Tesla edges out slightly for its resilience, but Rivian’s upside makes it tempting for the bold.
Ultimately, Tesla is the safer bet on April 1, 2025, but Rivian might be the better long-term play if you believe in its turnaround. Consider splitting investment if you like both stories—Tesla for now, Rivian for later. Always weigh your own financial situation and market trends beyond this snapshot.
Friday, March 28, 2025
What are the cheapest priced Chinese electric cars and what is the mileage range, and are they street legal in America?
Let’s break this down into the three parts of your question: the cheapest priced Chinese electric cars, their mileage range, and whether they’re street legal in America.
Cheapest Priced Chinese Electric Cars
Chinese automakers are known for producing some of the most affordable electric vehicles (EVs) globally, though many aren’t directly available in the U.S. due to tariffs, safety regulations, and market strategies. Here are some notable examples based on available pricing from China or markets where they’re sold:
Wuling Hong Guang Mini EV: This tiny city car, produced by a joint venture between SAIC, General Motors, and Wuling, starts at around $5,000 USD in China. It’s one of the cheapest EVs in the world.
Changli NEMECA (or similar Changli models): Sold through platforms like Alibaba, these micro-EVs start at about $900-$1,200 USD before shipping and import costs. They’re marketed as personal transport for short distances.
BYD Seagull: Launched in 2023, this compact hatchback starts at roughly $10,000-$11,000 USD in China, offering a more conventional car design.
XPeng Mona M03: Introduced in 2024, this budget-friendly EV starts at around $16,890 USD (based on currency conversion from its Chinese price), making it one of XPeng’s most affordable offerings.
Ora Good Cat (Great Wall Motors): This compact hatchback costs about $16,000 USD in China, slightly less than the XPeng Mona M03.
These prices reflect base models in China and don’t include shipping, tariffs, or modifications needed for other markets, which can significantly increase the cost for U.S. buyers attempting to import them.
Mileage Range
The range of these EVs varies widely depending on their size, battery capacity, and intended use. Here’s the mileage range for the examples above, typically based on China’s CLTC testing cycle (which tends to be more optimistic than the U.S. EPA standard):
Wuling Hong Guang Mini EV: Offers a range of about 75-120 miles (120-200 km), depending on the battery version (9.3 kWh or 13.9 kWh). Real-world range might be closer to 50-100 miles under U.S. conditions.
Changli NEMECA: Claims around 28 miles (45 km) of range with its small lead-acid or lithium battery options. Testing by users like Jason Torchinsky suggests this is optimistic, with real-world use likely lower.
BYD Seagull: Provides up to 190 miles (305 km) on the CLTC cycle with its base 30.08 kWh battery, or 252 miles (405 km) with the larger 38.88 kWh option. EPA-equivalent range might be around 150-200 miles.
XPeng Mona M03: Offers 320 miles (515 km) with its 140 kWh battery or 385 miles (620 km) with the 160 kWh version, per CLTC. Converted to EPA standards (typically 70-75% of CLTC), this could be roughly 225-290 miles.
Ora Good Cat: Delivers around 261 miles (420 km) with its 47.8 kWh battery under CLTC, likely translating to 180-200 miles EPA.
Note that CLTC ranges are often higher than what you’d see in U.S. testing due to differences in driving conditions and methodology. Real-world performance in America could be lower, especially in varied climates or with aggressive driving.
Street Legal in America?
Whether these cars are street-legal in the U.S. depends on compliance with Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS), overseen by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), and environmental regulations from the EPA. Here’s the status for each:
Wuling Hong Guang Mini EV: Not street-legal in the U.S. as a standard passenger car. It lacks safety features like airbags, advanced crash protection, and proper lighting required by FMVSS. It’s designed for China’s less stringent urban vehicle rules and isn’t sold here officially.
Changli NEMECA: Can be registered in some states as a Low-Speed Vehicle (LSV) or Neighborhood Electric Vehicle (NEV), legal on roads with speed limits of 35-40 mph or lower. It requires turn signals, lights, and seat belts, which some models include, but it doesn’t meet full FMVSS for higher-speed roads. Importers must handle registration, which varies by state.
BYD Seagull: Not currently sold in the U.S., so it’s not certified for American roads. Importing one would face a 27.5% tariff (recently raised to 100% in 2024 under Biden’s policy), plus costs to meet FMVSS and EPA standards—unlikely to happen without BYD establishing U.S. production.
XPeng Mona M03: Not available in the U.S. and not certified for FMVSS. XPeng has focused on China and Europe, with no immediate plans for American sales. Importing would face similar tariff and compliance hurdles.
Ora Good Cat: Not sold in the U.S. and not FMVSS-compliant as is. Great Wall Motors has explored international markets like Europe but hasn’t tackled U.S. certification.
Why Aren’t They Widely Available in the U.S.?
Most of these vehicles aren’t street-legal for general use in America because they’re built for China’s market, where regulations are less strict. The U.S. imposes a 27.5% tariff on Chinese-made cars (now 100% as of 2024), plus additional costs to meet safety and emissions standards, making them less competitive even if imported. Exceptions like the Changli can fit into niche LSV categories, but they’re limited to low-speed zones. Companies like BYD or XPeng could theoretically sell here by building U.S. plants (to avoid tariffs) and certifying vehicles, but political tensions, consumer perception, and competition from domestic brands like Tesla deter this.
Final Notes
The cheapest Chinese EVs—like the Wuling Mini EV ($5,000, 75-120 miles) or Changli NEMECA ($900-$1,200, ~28 miles)—offer incredible value but are either restricted to LSV status or not legal at all without significant modification. More robust options like the BYD Seagull ($10,000-$11,000, ~190-252 miles) or XPeng Mona M03 ($16,890, ~320-385 miles) show China’s capability, but they’re not accessible to American buyers without import hurdles. For now, the Chevy Bolt EV ($23,500 after tax credits, 259 miles EPA) remains one of the cheapest fully street-legal EVs in the U.S.
Thursday, March 27, 2025
What are the best electric cars in 2025 as far as charging speed?
Charging speed is a critical factor for electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), as it determines how quickly you can recharge and get back on the road. For this comparison, I’ll focus on the EVs and PHEV from your previous question: the Nissan Leaf S, Hyundai Kona Electric SE, Chevrolet Equinox EV FWD, and Toyota Prius Prime SE. I’ll cover both AC (Level 1 and Level 2) and DC fast charging speeds where applicable, based on 2025 model specifications. Charging times depend on battery size, charger capability, and acceptance rates, so I’ll provide practical estimates.
Charging Speed Comparison
1. Nissan Leaf S
Battery Size: 40 kWh
Level 1 AC (120V, 1.4 kW): ~28-30 hours for a full charge (trickle charge, typically 4-5 miles of range per hour).
Level 2 AC (240V, 6.6 kW): 6-7 hours for a full charge (20-25 miles of range per hour).
DC Fast Charging (50 kW via CHAdeMO): 20-80% in 40-45 minutes (100 miles of range in 30 minutes under optimal conditions).
Notes: The Leaf S is limited to 50 kW DC fast charging, which is slower than many modern EVs. Its CHAdeMO port is also becoming less common as charging networks shift to CCS or NACS standards, potentially limiting fast-charging options. It’s adequate for short trips but less ideal for frequent long-distance travel.
2. Hyundai Kona Electric SE
Battery Size: 48.6 kWh (base SE model; higher trims use a 64.8 kWh battery)
Level 1 AC (120V, 1.4 kW): 34-36 hours for a full charge (5-6 miles of range per hour).
Level 2 AC (240V, 10.8 kW): 5-6 hours for a full charge (35-40 miles of range per hour with an 11 kW onboard charger).
DC Fast Charging (100 kW via CCS): 10-80% in 43-47 minutes (140 miles of range in 30 minutes).
Notes: The Kona Electric SE supports faster DC charging than the Leaf (up to 100 kW), making it more practical for road trips. Its Level 2 charging is also quicker due to a higher-power onboard charger. The CCS port aligns with widespread charging infrastructure, enhancing compatibility.
3. Chevrolet Equinox EV FWD
Battery Size: ~79 kWh (estimated based on range and platform data)
Level 1 AC (120V, 1.4 kW): 55-60 hours for a full charge (5-6 miles of range per hour).
Level 2 AC (240V, 11.5 kW): 7-8 hours for a full charge (40-45 miles of range per hour with an 11.5 kW onboard charger).
DC Fast Charging (150 kW via CCS): 10-80% in 30-35 minutes (200 miles of range in 30 minutes; adds 77 miles in 10 minutes).
Notes: The Equinox EV excels with 150 kW fast charging, one of the highest rates in this price range, and a robust 11.5 kW onboard charger for Level 2. Its larger battery means longer full-charge times, but the fast-charging speed makes it a standout for convenience on longer drives. CCS compatibility ensures broad access to public chargers.
4. Toyota Prius Prime SE (PHEV)
Battery Size: 13.6 kWh
Level 1 AC (120V, 1.4 kW): 11 hours for a full charge (4 miles of electric range per hour).
Level 2 AC (240V, 6.6 kW): 2-2.5 hours for a full charge (20-22 miles of electric range per hour with a 6.6 kW onboard charger).
DC Fast Charging: Not available (PHEVs typically don’t support DC fast charging).
Notes: As a PHEV, the Prius Prime has a smaller battery, so charging times are shorter overall. Its 6.6 kW Level 2 charging is quick enough for overnight or workplace charging, covering its 44-mile electric range. Lack of DC fast charging isn’t a major drawback given its hybrid fallback (50 mpg), but it’s less flexible for all-electric travel compared to full EVs.
Side-by-Side Comparison
Vehicle
Level 1 (120V) Full Charge
Level 2 (240V) Full Charge
DC Fast Charging (10-80%)
Max DC Rate
Charger Type
Nissan Leaf S
28-30 hours
6-7 hours
40-45 min (~100 mi/30 min)
50 kW
CHAdeMO
Hyundai Kona SE
34-36 hours
5-6 hours
43-47 min (~140 mi/30 min)
100 kW
CCS
Chevy Equinox EV
55-60 hours
7-8 hours
30-35 min (~200 mi/30 min)
150 kW
CCS
Toyota Prius Prime
11 hours
2-2.5 hours
N/A
N/A
N/A (AC only)
What are the best electric and hybrid cars as far as price and range for 2025?
To determine the best electric and hybrid cars for the money in 2025, focusing on the lowest price and range, I'll break this down into two categories: fully electric vehicles (EVs) and hybrid vehicles (including plug-in hybrids, or PHEVs). The recommendations are based on available data for pricing (Manufacturer's Suggested Retail Price, or MSRP) and range, prioritizing affordability and efficiency for 2025 models. Note that prices may vary slightly due to destination fees, trim levels, or regional incentives, and range figures are typically EPA estimates.
Best Electric Vehicles (EVs) for the Money
Nissan Leaf S
Price: Starting at $28,140
Range: 149 miles
Why It’s a Top Pick: The Nissan Leaf S is the cheapest new EV available in 2025, making it an excellent entry point for budget-conscious buyers. While its range is modest compared to pricier competitors, it’s sufficient for city driving or short commutes. The base model includes an 8-inch touchscreen with navigation, Apple CarPlay, and Android Auto. However, it’s worth noting that its CHAdeMO charging port is less common as the industry shifts toward Tesla’s NACS standard, though this won’t impact home charging significantly.
Hyundai Kona Electric SE
Price: Starting at $32,825
Range: 200 miles
Why It’s a Top Pick: For a slightly higher price, the Kona Electric offers a better range than the Leaf, along with a practical subcompact SUV design. It’s a strong value proposition with modern styling, wireless connectivity, and a comfortable interior. The 2025 model benefits from a price drop of $675 compared to 2024, enhancing its appeal. Higher trims (SEL, Limited, N Line) bump the range to 261 miles with a larger battery, but the base SE keeps costs low.
Chevrolet Equinox EV FWD
Price: Starting at $33,600 (eligible for $7,500 federal tax credit, potentially reducing effective cost to $26,100)
Range: 319 miles
Why It’s a Top Pick: The Equinox EV stands out as a value king with an exceptional range for its price point. Its spacious interior and 150-kW fast-charging capability (adding 77 miles in 10 minutes) make it ideal for longer trips. If you qualify for the federal EV tax credit, it becomes one of the most affordable long-range EVs available, rivaling options costing significantly more.
Best Hybrid Vehicles (Including PHEVs) for the Money
Toyota Corolla Hybrid LE
Price: Starting at $23,625
Range: Not applicable (fuel economy: 50 mpg combined, ~600 miles total range on a full tank)
Why It’s a Top Pick: As the cheapest hybrid on the market, the Corolla Hybrid delivers outstanding fuel efficiency and Toyota’s renowned reliability. It’s a traditional hybrid (not a plug-in), so there’s no electric-only range, but its low price and up to 600 miles of total range per tank make it a budget-friendly option for those prioritizing cost over electric driving. It’s ideal for urban and highway driving alike.
Hyundai Elantra Hybrid Blue
Price: Starting at $26,250
Range: Not applicable (fuel economy: 54 mpg combined, ~600 miles total range)
Why It’s a Top Pick: Slightly more expensive than the Corolla, the Elantra Hybrid offers superior fuel economy and a sleek design. It’s another traditional hybrid with no plug-in capability, but its low starting price and high efficiency provide excellent value. The spacious interior and smooth ride add to its appeal for cost-conscious buyers seeking practicality.
Toyota Prius Prime SE (PHEV)
Price: Starting at $32,975
Electric Range: 44 miles (plus 50 mpg in hybrid mode)
Why It’s a Top Pick: As one of the cheapest plug-in hybrids, the Prius Prime bridges the gap between hybrids and EVs. Its 44-mile electric range covers most daily commutes, and its hybrid mode delivers top-tier fuel economy. The redesigned 2025 Prius is stylish and efficient, making it a great middle-ground option for those not ready for a full EV but wanting some electric capability.
Summary and Recommendations
Lowest Price EV: The Nissan Leaf S ($28,140) is the cheapest option, though its 149-mile range limits its versatility.
Best EV Value for Range: The Chevrolet Equinox EV ($33,600, or ~$26,100 with tax credit) offers an impressive 319 miles, making it the standout for balancing cost and range.
Lowest Price Hybrid: The Toyota Corolla Hybrid ($23,625) is unbeatable for price and delivers a massive total range via its 50 mpg efficiency.
Best PHEV Value: The Toyota Prius Prime ($32,975) provides a solid 44-mile electric range at a competitive price.
For buyers prioritizing the absolute lowest price, the Toyota Corolla Hybrid and Nissan Leaf S are the winners. If range is a key factor, the Chevrolet Equinox EV offers the best bang for your buck among EVs, while the Prius Prime is a compelling PHEV choice. Your decision may depend on whether you prefer the simplicity of a traditional hybrid, the partial electric capability of a PHEV, or the full electric experience of an EV—along with access to charging infrastructure and potential tax incentives.
Thursday, March 20, 2025
What is the future for Tesla stock, the forecast for 2025-2030?
Forecasting Tesla's stock price from 2025 to 2030 involves a range of variables, including market trends, Tesla’s performance, technological advancements, and broader economic conditions. Based on available analyst predictions and market insights as of March 20, 2025, here’s a synthesis of the potential trajectory for Tesla (TSLA) stock over this period. Keep in mind that these are speculative estimates, and actual outcomes may differ due to unforeseen factors.
For 2025, analyst forecasts vary widely, reflecting both optimism and caution. Projections suggest Tesla’s stock could range between $207.63 and $542.36 by year-end. The lower end, around $207-$230, comes from bearish outlooks citing increased competition from companies like BYD and potential economic slowdowns affecting EV demand. The higher end, approaching $470-$542, is driven by bullish views tied to Tesla’s production scaling (potentially reaching 2.2-2.5 million vehicles), advancements in Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, and energy storage growth. Some sources, like CoinCodex, predict a peak of $627.35 by December 2025, implying a 57.6% rise from early 2025 levels, while others, such as LiteFinance, estimate $271-$431. The consensus leans toward moderate growth, with an average around $300-$350, assuming Tesla maintains its EV market leadership and navigates competitive pressures.
Looking toward 2030, long-term forecasts diverge even more due to the extended timeline and uncertainty. Optimistic projections place Tesla’s stock between $900 and $1,800. CoinPriceForecast suggests a steady climb, hitting $900 by 2030, with a potential to reach $1,074-$1,150 in the 2027-2031 period, driven by a 114% increase from 2026 levels. Analysts like Ron Baron and Cathie Wood (via ARK Invest) are even more bullish, with Baron eyeing $1,500 and Wood’s base case at $2,000 (originally for 2027, adjusted forward), fueled by FSD monetization, robotaxi deployment, and energy business expansion. CoinCodex aligns with this, forecasting a range of $251.94-$547.82, with a potential ROI of 129.85%. On the conservative side, estimates hover around $500-$700 if Tesla faces execution challenges, margin erosion, or regulatory hurdles. GovCapital’s five-year outlook (to 2029) of $1,534.78 suggests a possible 2030 value exceeding $1,700 under ideal conditions.
Key drivers include Tesla’s ability to scale production (Elon Musk’s 20 million vehicle goal by 2030 is ambitious but doubted by many), FSD adoption (potentially generating billions in software revenue), and its energy segment overtaking automotive in gigawatt-hour deployment. Risks involve intensifying competition, especially from Chinese EV makers, subsidy changes, and macroeconomic volatility. Posts on X and web analyses highlight sentiment: some see Tesla at $450 by 2030 with 3 million annual sales, while others predict $1,000+ if autonomy succeeds.
In summary, Tesla’s stock could realistically range from $300-$600 in 2025 and $500-$1,500 in 2030, with outliers as low as $200 or as high as $2,000 depending on execution and market dynamics. These figures reflect a blend of analyst data and growth trends, but investors should remain cautious as long-term predictions are inherently uncertain.
Wednesday, March 19, 2025
What is the stock price forecast for Rivian stock in 2025-2030?
Predicting Rivian’s stock price from 2025 to 2030 involves analyzing various forecasts from analysts and market trends, though these projections are inherently speculative and subject to change based on economic conditions, company performance, and the electric vehicle (EV) market’s evolution. Below is a synthesis of available forecasts and insights based on current data, keeping in mind that my knowledge is fresh as of March 19, 2025.
For 2025, forecasts vary depending on the source. One estimate suggests Rivian’s stock could end the year around $11.70 to $13.60, reflecting a cautious outlook with potential for modest growth from its current price of approximately $11.02 (as noted in some analyses). A more optimistic projection places it at $16.90 by year-end, implying a 17.70% growth from early 2025 levels, driven by anticipated production increases and cost-cutting measures. Another bullish scenario sees it reaching $65, tied to significant EV market expansion and Rivian’s operational improvements, though this seems outlier-level optimistic given current challenges like cash burn and competition.
Moving to 2026, the range widens. Conservative estimates suggest a price of $10.49, assuming Rivian struggles with scaling and profitability against competitors like Tesla and Ford. A more balanced forecast predicts $21.17, a 47.56% increase from 2025, based on steady production ramps (e.g., the R2 platform rollout). Higher-end projections reach $59, contingent on Rivian capitalizing on its Amazon partnership and achieving positive market sentiment.
For 2030, long-term forecasts diverge significantly. A bearish view sees Rivian dropping to $3.06, reflecting doubts about its ability to achieve profitability or maintain market share in a crowded EV space. The base case, assuming revenue growth to $45.71 billion (a consensus estimate) and steady progress toward profitability by 2027-2028, suggests a price of $128, roughly doubling from current levels every few years. Optimistic scenarios are far bolder: one forecast hits $210, driven by global EV adoption and strategic partnerships (e.g., Volkswagen, Amazon), while an extreme bullish case reaches $845, assuming Rivian captures a 10% U.S. EV market share and scales to 1 million vehicles annually. These high-end figures hinge on flawless execution, which is far from guaranteed given Rivian’s current $5.9 billion net debt and negative free cash flow.
Key factors influencing these forecasts include Rivian’s ability to reduce costs (e.g., 45% material cost cuts with Gen 2 platforms by 2026), scale production (targeting 50,000+ vehicles in 2025 and potentially 400,000 by 2030 with the Georgia plant), and navigate competition. External variables like interest rates, government subsidies, and EV demand growth also play a role. As of now, Rivian’s cash reserves should last through 2025, but dilution or debt could pressure the stock if sales don’t accelerate.
In summary:
2025: $11.70–$16.90 (conservative to moderate), up to $65 (bullish).
2026: $10.49–$21.17 (bearish to moderate), up to $59 (bullish).
2030: $3.06 (bearish), $128–$210 (base to optimistic), up to $845 (extremely bullish).
These ranges reflect the uncertainty and volatility in Rivian’s trajectory. For a precise investment decision, you’d need to weigh its execution against real-time market developments closer to those years.
Friday, March 14, 2025
So, how much money does Rivian lose every time it sells a truck or suv?
As of the most recent data available to me, Rivian's financial loss per vehicle sold has fluctuated over time but remains significant as the company works toward profitability. Based on Rivian's Q4 2024 financial results, the company reported a gross profit of $170 million for the quarter, a notable improvement driven by cost efficiencies and higher production volumes. However, this does not yet translate to a positive net income or a per-vehicle profit when considering the full scope of operating expenses, overhead, and other costs.
Historically, Rivian's per-vehicle loss has been calculated by dividing total losses by the number of vehicles delivered, though the gross profit per vehicle (revenue minus cost of goods sold) provides a more direct look at production-level economics. For example:
In Q2 2023, Rivian reported a gross loss of approximately $32,595 per vehicle delivered, an improvement from $67,329 in Q1 2023 and $124,162 in Q4 2022, showing a trend of narrowing losses as production scales and efficiencies improve.
By Q1 2024, posts on X and some reports suggested a gross loss of around $39,000 per vehicle, though this figure often reflects total net losses (including R&D, administrative costs, etc.) divided by deliveries rather than just production costs.
For Q4 2024, Rivian achieved a positive gross profit, but posts on X indicate the company still lost approximately $13,326 per vehicle when factoring in all costs (not just cost of goods sold). This suggests that while production costs are nearing breakeven or slight positivity, overhead and other expenses keep the per-vehicle net loss in the double-digit thousands.
Given the complexity of Rivian's financials, the exact loss per vehicle depends on the specific quarter and how "loss" is defined (gross vs. net). As of Q4 2024, the most current estimate, based on available data and sentiment from X posts, suggests Rivian is losing around $13,000 to $25,000 per vehicle sold when accounting for all expenses, though this figure is trending downward. The company has yet to achieve net profitability, having accumulated a $23.3 billion balance sheet loss over its 3.5 years of production as of early 2025.
For a precise figure, Rivian's latest earnings reports would need to be analyzed beyond my current data scope, but the trajectory indicates losses are shrinking as production ramps up and cost-cutting measures take effect. Would you like me to dig deeper into a specific quarter or aspect of their financials based on what’s available?
Thursday, March 13, 2025
If you has purchased $1000 in Rivian stock at the IPO, what would it be worth today?
Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) went public on November 10, 2021, with an initial offering price of $78 per share. If you purchased $1,000 worth of Rivian stock at the IPO price, you would have been able to buy:
$1,000 ÷ $78 per share = approximately 12.82 shares
Since you can’t purchase fractional shares in a traditional IPO, you would have bought 12 shares with $936 of your $1,000, leaving $64 unspent. However, for simplicity, let’s assume you could buy exactly 12.82 shares at the IPO price with the full $1,000.
As of today, March 13, 2025, the most recent closing stock price for Rivian, based on available data up to March 10, 2025, was $10.96 per share (noting that the exact price could vary slightly depending on intraday trading on March 13, which isn’t fully reflected in the data provided). Using this price:
12.82 shares × $10.96 per share = approximately $140.50
So, if you invested $1,000 in Rivian stock at its IPO price of $78 per share, your investment would be worth approximately $140.50 today, representing a significant decline of about 85.95% from your initial investment. This aligns with broader trends of Rivian’s stock performance, which has seen a substantial drop from its IPO value due to various market and company-specific factors.
Note that stock prices fluctuate daily, and the exact value could differ slightly based on the closing price on March 13, 2025, if it deviates from the $10.96 figure from March 10. Transaction fees or brokerage costs, if applicable, would also reduce the final value slightly, but these are not factored in here due to variability.
Sunday, March 2, 2025
Will Rivian be able to survive without government loans and government bailouts under Donald Trump?
Whether Rivian will survive without government loans and bailouts is uncertain and depends on several factors, including its financial health, market performance, operational efficiency, and broader economic conditions. Let’s break this down based on available information and reasoning.
Rivian, an electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer, has faced significant financial challenges since its inception. The company has yet to achieve consistent profitability, reporting substantial losses—such as $5.4 billion in 2023 and $1.1 billion in Q3 2024—while scaling production and developing new models like the R2 and R3. Its cash reserves have been depleting, with analysts and posts on X suggesting it could run out of money within a few years without additional funding. This backdrop makes external capital, including government loans, a critical lifeline.
In November 2024, Rivian received conditional approval for a $6.6 billion loan from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing (ATVM) program to fund its Georgia factory, Project Horizon. This loan, finalized in January 2025, aims to support the production of 400,000 vehicles annually and create 7,500 jobs by 2030. Additionally, Rivian secured a $5.8 billion investment from Volkswagen in 2024 for a technology joint venture. Together, these inflows provide up to $12.4 billion in incremental capital, significantly bolstering its financial position in the short term.
Without government loans, Rivian’s survival hinges on its ability to generate sufficient revenue and manage costs. The company produced around 50,000 vehicles annually in 2023 and 2024, with plans to maintain this level in 2025 unless demand shifts. Its gross profit in Q4 2024 was partly driven by EV tax credits, which could be at risk under a new administration less favorable to EV subsidies (e.g., Trump’s stated intent to cut such programs). Losing these credits could erode Rivian’s margins, especially since its vehicles—like the R1T and R1S—are premium-priced and rely on U.S. sales, where subsidies play a role in affordability.
Rivian’s cash burn is another concern. Building a new factory and launching the more affordable R2 (set for production in Illinois in 2026) require heavy upfront investment. Without the DOE loan, Rivian would need to lean on private funding, like the Volkswagen deal, or raise capital through stock offerings, which could dilute shareholders and signal distress if market confidence wanes. Its stock has struggled, down about 50% in 2024, reflecting investor skepticism about its path to profitability.
However, Rivian has strengths that could aid survival. It has a strong brand, high customer satisfaction (notably outperforming Tesla’s Model X in R1S sales in some metrics), and a differentiated product lineup targeting outdoor enthusiasts and commercial clients (e.g., Amazon vans). If it can reduce production costs—as it claims to have done quarterly—and successfully launch the R2 at a competitive price, it might tap into broader demand and achieve economies of scale. The Volkswagen partnership also offers technological and financial support, potentially offsetting the loss of government aid.
Comparisons to Tesla are instructive. Tesla received a $465 million ATVM loan in 2010, which it repaid early, but it also benefited from years of subsidies and a more mature EV market by the time it scaled. Rivian faces a tougher landscape: slowing EV growth, rising interest rates, and competition from established automakers and cheaper Chinese EVs (though U.S. tariffs may limit the latter). Without government support, Rivian’s margin for error shrinks.
If the $6.6 billion loan were clawed back (e.g., under a Trump administration, as suggested by Vivek Ramaswamy), Rivian could still limp along with Volkswagen’s $5.8 billion and existing cash—reported at $7.9 billion post-Q3 2024—giving it perhaps 12-18 months of runway, as speculated on X. But long-term survival would require profitability before cash runs dry, a feat it hasn’t yet demonstrated.
In conclusion, Rivian could survive without government loans and bailouts if it leverages private investment, cuts costs, and executes its R2 launch flawlessly to drive sales. However, its current trajectory suggests heavy reliance on external funding, and the absence of government support would heighten the risk of insolvency within a few years, especially if EV incentives vanish or demand falters. The company’s fate remains speculative, balancing precariously on execution and market conditions.
Predicting whether Rivian, an American electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer, will survive under Donald Trump’s presidency involves assessing multiple factors, including Trump’s policy priorities, Rivian’s financial health, and the broader EV market dynamics. As of March 2, 2025, Trump has been in office for just over a month since his inauguration on January 20, 2025, so concrete outcomes are still speculative. However, we can analyze the situation based on current trends, Trump’s stated intentions, and Rivian’s position.
Trump has historically been skeptical of EV-focused policies, often calling climate change initiatives a “hoax” and opposing subsidies for electric vehicles. During his campaign, he promised to roll back Biden-era EV incentives, such as the $7,500 tax credit under the Inflation Reduction Act, and to dismantle emissions standards that favor EVs over traditional gas-powered vehicles. If these policies are enacted, the EV industry could face headwinds, particularly for companies like Rivian that rely heavily on U.S. sales and regulatory support. For instance, Rivian expects to earn $275 million in regulatory credit sales in Q4 2024, a revenue stream that could be at risk if Trump alters corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards or other regulations.
Rivian’s financial situation adds another layer of complexity. As of late 2024, the company has struggled to scale production, hovering around 50,000 vehicles annually for the past two years, with plans to cut back in 2025 according to some reports on X. It’s also cash-intensive, burning through reserves as it ramps up for new models like the R2 (priced at ~$45,000, with deliveries starting in 2026). A $5 billion loan approved under Biden’s administration could be jeopardized if Trump’s team reevaluates such commitments, though no definitive action has been taken yet. Rivian’s stock has faced volatility, with analysts noting its dependence on subsidies and a lack of near-term catalysts.
That said, Rivian has strengths that could help it weather a less EV-friendly administration. It boasts a strong product lineup—its R1T truck and R1S SUV have garnered praise for quality and differentiation, unlike many struggling EV startups with “me-too” offerings. Analysts from firms like Baird remain optimistic about its long-term brand and potential, even amid policy uncertainty. Rivian’s partnership with Amazon, which includes a contract for 100,000 electric delivery vans, provides a steady demand base that isn’t directly tied to consumer subsidies. Plus, the broader shift toward electrification—driven by consumer interest and global competition—might not halt entirely, even if U.S. incentives wane.
On the flip side, a Trump presidency could exacerbate Rivian’s challenges. Reduced subsidies might shrink demand for its premium-priced vehicles (currently starting over $70,000), especially if gas prices drop due to Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” energy policies. Higher tariffs on imported components, another Trump pledge, could also raise Rivian’s production costs, given the global nature of EV supply chains. Posts on X suggest sentiment is mixed, with some users predicting a steep decline if subsidies vanish, while others see Rivian’s product strength as a lifeline.
In conclusion, Rivian’s survival under Trump isn’t guaranteed but isn’t doomed either. It faces a tougher road without EV subsidies and regulatory tailwinds, but its solid product, strategic partnerships, and upcoming lower-cost models (R2 and R3) could keep it afloat if it manages cash flow effectively. The next year or two—especially Trump’s early policy moves and Rivian’s ability to hit R2 production targets—will be critical. For now, it’s a coin toss, leaning on Rivian’s resilience versus Trump’s potential to disrupt the EV ecosystem. What do you think—any specific aspect of this you’d like to dig into further?
Wednesday, February 19, 2025
Why did the CFO of RIvian sell about $100,000.00 worth of Rivian stock?
Claire McDonough, the Chief Financial Officer of Rivian Automotive, Inc., sold 8,097 shares of Rivian Class A common stock on November 25, 2024, at a price of $12.20 per share, totaling approximately $98,783. This transaction was conducted under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan, which McDonough had established on August 16, 2024. Rule 10b5-1 plans allow company insiders to sell stock at predetermined times or prices to avoid potential accusations of insider trading, as the sales are scheduled in advance when the insider is not in possession of material non-public information. The details of this sale were disclosed in Rivian’s quarterly report filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on November 7, 2024, covering the period ending September 30, 2024, with the specific Form 4 filing reflecting the transaction occurring later in November.
Reasons for the Sale
There is no explicit public statement from McDonough detailing her personal motivations for the sale, as is typical with such transactions under Rule 10b5-1 plans. However, several common reasons might explain why a CFO like McDonough would execute such a sale:
Portfolio Diversification or Personal Financial Planning: Insiders often sell shares to diversify their investments or meet personal financial needs, especially if a significant portion of their wealth is tied to company stock. After the sale, McDonough retained 370,401 shares, suggesting she still holds a substantial stake in Rivian, valued at approximately $4.52 million at the $12.20 sale price.
Pre-Scheduled Transaction: Since the sale was part of a Rule 10b5-1 plan, it was likely set up months in advance to occur regardless of current market conditions or company performance, reducing speculation about it being a reaction to immediate events or a lack of confidence in Rivian’s future.
Tax or Compensation Strategy: Executives sometimes sell shares to cover tax obligations related to vested stock awards or as part of a broader compensation strategy, though the filing does not explicitly tie this sale to such an event.
Importantly, the sale amounted to a small fraction of McDonough’s holdings (approximately 2.14% of her 378,498 shares before the transaction, based on the post-sale figure of 370,401), and it occurred during a period when Rivian’s stock had gained momentum, with a reported 19% increase in stock price over the prior week according to some analyses around that time. This context suggests the sale was not necessarily a signal of pessimism but rather a routine financial move.
Effect on Rivian Stock Price
Pinpointing the precise impact of McDonough’s sale on Rivian’s stock price is challenging due to the multitude of factors influencing stock movements and the lack of granular, time-stamped trading data tied specifically to this event in the available information. However, here’s an analysis based on market dynamics and context:
Timing and Market Reaction: The sale occurred on November 25, 2024, and was reported after the fact via an SEC Form 4 filing, typically filed within two business days (likely by November 27, 2024). Stock prices often react to insider sales when they are perceived as significant or unexpected, but this transaction was modest in scale ($98,783 is minor relative to Rivian’s market cap of over $10 billion at the time) and pre-scheduled, reducing its likelihood of alarming investors. Around late November 2024, Rivian’s stock was rallying, partly due to positive developments like the finalization of a $5.8 billion joint venture with Volkswagen on November 13, 2024, and optimism about production and delivery updates.
Stock Performance Context: On November 25, 2024, Rivian’s stock closed at a price that would align with its reported momentum (e.g., a 19% weekly gain noted in some sources). For example, if the stock was trading around $10–$11 the prior week, a 19% increase could place it near $12–$13, consistent with the $12.20 sale price. There’s no evidence of a significant drop immediately following the sale announcement. In fact, Rivian’s stock continued to show volatility but maintained an upward trend into December 2024, with reports indicating a surge after Q4 delivery numbers beat estimates in early January 2025 (e.g., a 24% jump on January 3, 2025, per some analyses).
Likely Negligible Impact: Given the small size of the sale, its pre-arranged nature, and the positive market sentiment around Rivian at the time (e.g., Volkswagen deal, strong liquidity reports), it’s unlikely this transaction alone materially affected the stock price. Broader market factors, such as Rivian’s production updates, EV market trends, and macroeconomic conditions, would have had a far greater influence. For comparison, insider sales of much larger magnitudes (e.g., millions of dollars) tend to draw more scrutiny, yet even those don’t always lead to sustained price drops unless paired with negative company news.
Conclusion
Claire McDonough’s sale of approximately $100,000 in Rivian stock was likely a planned, personal financial decision executed under a Rule 10b5-1 plan, not a reflection of doubt in Rivian’s prospects. The stock price appears to have been unaffected in any significant way by this specific transaction, as it was overshadowed by larger positive developments and market trends driving Rivian’s valuation in late 2024 and early 2025. As of today, February 19, 2025, Rivian’s stock has experienced fluctuations but remains influenced more by operational performance (e.g., Q4 2024 deliveries of 51,500 vehicles) and strategic partnerships than by this minor insider sale.
Wednesday, February 5, 2025
Any new details about the $10k 2025 E Truck?
As of February 5, 2025, there are no verified details from official Tesla sources or credible news outlets about Elon Musk unveiling or planning to release a $10,000 electric truck specifically for 2025. Here's what we know based on available information:
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Rumors and Misinformation: There have been rumors circulating on social media and some websites suggesting that Elon Musk or Tesla was set to introduce an electric truck or motorhome at a $10,000 or similar low price point. However, these claims have been debunked by fact-checking sites like Snopes and PolitiFact. For instance, Snopes addressed a claim about a $17,000 Tesla motorhome for 2025, stating it was false as no such announcement had been made by Musk or Tesla (Snopes.com (www.snopes.com)).
Tesla's Actual 2025 Offerings: Tesla's current focus for 2025 includes vehicles like the Cybertruck, which has been launched with much higher price points starting around $61,000 for the base model (The Washington Post (www.washingtonpost.com)). There's no indication from Tesla or Elon Musk about producing an electric truck at such a low price as $10,000.
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Tesla's Future Plans: Elon Musk has spoken about Tesla's plans to produce more affordable vehicles in the future, but these discussions have not specified a $10,000 electric truck. Musk has historically aimed for affordability in electric vehicles, but the complexity of manufacturing and the costs associated with electric vehicle technology make a $10,000 truck highly unlikely in the near term without significant technological or production breakthroughs.
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Speculative Content: Some content on platforms like YouTube or speculative articles might discuss or imagine such a scenario, but these are not backed by official announcements or credible evidence. For example, a video on YouTube titled "It Happened! Elon Musk Reveals 2025 Cybertruck Upgrades & New Features!" (YouTube (www.youtube.com)) does not discuss a $10,000 truck but rather focuses on updates to the existing Cybertruck model.
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In conclusion, there's no reliable information or official announcements indicating that Elon Musk or Tesla plans to introduce a $10,000 electric truck in 2025. Any such talk should be considered speculative or misinformation until verified by official channels.
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